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CAGR Insights – 29 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

As we are close to wrapping up 2024, the Indian financial scene is vibrant and dynamic, offering both challenges and opportunities for investors. Here’s what you need to know to make informed decisions:

1. Gold: The Shining Asset

Gold has always been a safe haven, and recent trends reinforce this. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has purchased 78 tonnes of gold this year, bringing total reserves to 882 tonnes—the highest share since 1999. With gold imports skyrocketing to $7.13 billion in October alone, driven by festive demand, now might be a great time to consider adding gold or gold-related investments to your portfolio. Gold ETFs are also seeing record inflows, with INR 19.6 billion invested in October.

2. Foreign Investment Trends

Despite recent volatility, foreign direct investment (FDI) in India surged by 23.3% in 2023-24, with the U.S. leading the charge. This indicates strong international confidence in India’s growth story. As an investor, look for sectors attracting FDI, such as technology and renewable energy, which are poised for significant growth.

3. Infrastructure Opportunities

The Finance Minister’s call for faster capital investment rollout is crucial, with only ₹50,069 crore approved out of an allocated ₹1.5 lakh crore for infrastructure projects this fiscal year. This presents a golden opportunity for investors in construction and related sectors as the government seeks to boost economic activity.

4. Interest Rates and Inflation

With inflation concerns still on the radar, keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in interest rates can significantly impact your investment returns and borrowing costs.

Personal Finance

  • Cabinet approves PAN 2.0: Will you have to apply for a new one? PAN 2.0 is here. Transforming taxation with faster processing, seamless data integration, eco-friendly paperless systems, and enhanced security—bringing a smarter, more efficient way to manage your financial identity. Read here
  • India may soon announce EPFO 3.0 plan; subscribers likely to get option to withdraw PF via ATMs: The government plans EPFO 3.0, offering features like lifting the 12% contribution cap, ATM withdrawals by 2025, and higher pension contributions. The goal is greater flexibility and improved retirement benefits for subscribers. Read here

Investing

  • Market Turmoil: Can Domestic Flows Counter $55B Equity Surge and FII Exodus? Will India’s surging $55B equity supply outpace record SIP inflows and FII exits? Learn what’s driving market volatility and where the next big opportunities lie! Read here
  • Here’s how Warren Buffett says he’d start investing today: Warren Buffett suggests looking for hidden opportunities in smaller, overlooked companies, where significant value might be lurking. In these under-the-radar stocks, there’s potential for surprising returns, though success requires deep knowledge and a bit of risk. Read here
  • Why Indian equities are thriving while global markets are grappling with declines: Amid global economic uncertainty, India’s equity markets remain resilient, driven by strong domestic institutional investments and improving sentiment. While global markets face declines, India’s stability, attractive valuations, and growth prospects make it an appealing investment opportunity. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India’s gig economy could add 90 mn jobs enabled by large multinationals: The gig economy in India is projected to grow to $455 billion by 2024, contributing 1.25% to GDP and creating 90 million jobs. It supports sectors like e-commerce and delivery, with efforts to improve worker conditions and promote inclusive growth. Read here
  • Indian economy to bounce back for 3 big factors: Here’s what Morgan Stanley forecasts: India’s economy is expected to recover, with GDP growth forecasted to reach 6.7% in Q4 FY25. Government spending, food inflation moderation, and a recovering job market are key drivers, while Q3 slowdown was attributed to reduced government spending. Read here
  • India’s Defence Sector Presents Long Runway of Growth: India’s defence sector is poised for substantial and sustained growth, driven by increasing capital expenditure, according to global investment banking firm JP Morgan. Key factors underpinning this growth include rapidly expanding defence exports, a significant emphasis on domestic manufacturing, high returns on capital employed (RoCE), and robust cash flows. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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CAGR Insights – 22 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

Recent developments, such as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) $9.6 billion purchase of foreign currency to stabilize the rupee amid speculation around Federal Reserve rate cuts, offer valuable lessons for personal finance and investing.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Diversification: Just as the RBI diversifies its foreign reserves, individual investors should consider spreading their investments across various asset classes—stocks, bonds, and even international currencies. This strategy can help mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations.
  2. Stay Informed: Understanding global economic indicators, such as interest rates and geopolitical tensions, is crucial. The RBI’s actions often reflect broader economic trends; similarly, staying informed can empower personal investors to make proactive decisions rather than reactive ones.
  3. Long-Term Perspective: While short-term currency movements may cause anxiety, a long-term investment strategy generally yields better results. The RBI’s focus on building a robust forex buffer underscores the importance of stability over time.

Conclusion

The RBI’s recent manoeuvres remind us that personal finance involves strategic investing informed by economic trends. By diversifying and maintaining a long-term view, individuals can navigate financial uncertainties while seizing emerging opportunities.

Personal Finance

  • Return On Effort (ROE) Is Your Key To Unlocking A Better Life: Are you grinding harder or working smarter? Discover how the Return on Effort (ROE) mindset can transform your approach to success, wealth, and time. Learn why investing smarter beats overworking—especially in bull markets. Read here
  • The Opposite of the Latte Factor: Skip the latte or earn the cash? The “Latte Factor” shows small daily savings can build wealth, but at the cost of joy. Why not flip the script—boost income instead, grow wealth, and keep your latte too! Read here
  • Missed an SIP payment? Here is how it may affect your mutual fund portfolio: Neglecting timely SIP payments can lead to consequences such as disruption of rupee cost averaging, reduced accumulation of units, and potential penalties. Consistency is key to achieving long-term wealth-building goals. Read here

Investing

  • India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman calls for lower interest rates: “Lower interest rates now!” urges Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, dismissing growth fears and promising action. As the RBI prioritizes inflation control, concerns over sluggish consumption and dimmed growth projections spark a heated economic debate. Read here
  • Govt Eyes Stake Sale in Four State-Run Banks to Meet Sebi Norms: The government plans to sell minority stakes in four state-run banks to meet SEBI’s 25% public shareholding norms by the August 2026 deadline. This includes Central Bank of India, UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, and Punjab & Sind Bank. Read here
  • The art of being a lucky investor: Just as a winning bridge hand depends on reading the cards, investment success lies in realistic goals, managing risks, and seizing opportunities. With markets dominated by overpriced giants, smart stock-picking is a golden ticket for active managers to shine. Ready to play your hand? Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India to be insulated from trade war between US and China: Goldman Sachs: India’s economy is expected to remain resilient amidst potential US-China trade tensions in 2025. While GDP growth may slow to 6.3% due to fiscal consolidation and tighter credit, cautious RBI rate cuts aim to balance growth and stability. Read here
  • Slack witnessed in Q2 “behind us”, RBI bulletin: The RBI’s November bulletin highlights India’s economic resilience, driven by festival consumption, rural demand, and robust services growth. Despite inflation risks, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture show promise, while global uncertainties pose challenges to financial stability. Read here
  • Indian kirana stores feel the heat as quick commerce sees rapid rise: Quick commerce platforms are reshaping India’s retail landscape, drawing customers from kiranas with steep discounts and convenience. Despite kiranas’ dominance in unorganised retail, aggressive FDI-backed tactics threaten their survival, prompting some to adopt home delivery to compete. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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CAGR Insights – 14 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

Recently, the Indian stock market has experienced a significant correction, with major indices seeing declines of over 10% from their peaks. This shift has raised concerns among investors, especially after a strong bull run in the past few years. While it may seem alarming, market corrections are a natural part of the investing cycle and offer important lessons for investors.

Why Market Corrections Happen:

Overvaluation: Stocks or entire sectors sometimes become overvalued due to excessive optimism, and when the market corrects, it brings the valuations back to more sustainable levels.

Economic Factors: Changes in the global or domestic economic environment—such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, or geopolitical tensions—can trigger corrections.

Investor Sentiment: A shift in investor sentiment, driven by fear or uncertainty, often leads to increased selling pressure, resulting in market declines.

The ongoing market correction in India, fueled by external economic factors and shifting investor sentiment, is a natural part of market cycles. While it might be unsettling, it is important to view it as an opportunity to reflect on your financial goals, review your investments, and stay focused on the long-term horizon. In the face of volatility, maintaining discipline and patience can help investors navigate corrections successfully and capitalize on opportunities that may arise.

Personal Finance

  • My $507.34 Ridiculous Mistake! A five-year mistake, silent price hikes, and hundreds lost on a service never used—could you be missing the same hidden cost? Read here

  • What NRIs need to know about investing via mutual funds in India: The NPCI now allows NRIs with NRE or NRO accounts to make UPI transactions linked to international mobile numbers. Available in countries like the US, UK, UAE, and Australia, the service enables NRIs to send money to family in India or make payments without traditional wire transfers, fee-free.Read here

  • How to make NPS contributions via the BHIM app: NPCI BHIM Services has just made retirement planning a whole lot easier. Now, you can directly contribute to your National Pension System (NPS) account right from the comfort of your smartphone. To know how to load the money through BHIM appRead here

Investing

  • Indian stock market: 8 key things that changed for market overnight – Gift Nifty, US inflation, to surging dollar: Sensex and Nifty 50 are set for a cautious start amid global market fluctuations and a strong US dollar. With US inflation spurring Fed rate cut, and relentless FII selling weighing on Indian stocks, the markets brace for continued volatility as key economic factors plays out. Read here

  • A New Dawn: Navigating Market Uncertainty and Seizing Opportunities: With inflation fears looming large and market volatility persisting, are investors taking the right steps to protect their portfolios? As interest rates rise, how will the bond market fare? Can the stock market weather the storm, especially in the tech sector? What strategies can investors employ to navigate these turbulent times? Watch here

  • Index Funds are the go-to choice for India’s young investors, shows survey: A recent survey reveals that index funds are highly favoured among Millennials and Gen Z, with nearly half of investors under 43 choosing them, compared to just 35% of Gen X and Boomers. Passive investing, particularly in sectoral indices, has seen rapid growth, pushing Assets Under Management to over Rs 11 trillion. Read here

  • RBI announces rules to reclassify FPI investment as FDI once it crosses 10% holding in Indian firms: RBI has streamlined the process for FPIs to reclassify their holdings as FDI if their stake in an Indian company exceeds 10 percent. Previously, FPIs exceeding this cap were required to either divest the surplus shares or reclassify them as FDI. To know more about the framework. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report: Indian banks anticipate steady growth in loans and earnings, though risks in unsecured lending and uncertain rate cuts could affect margins. Will they thrive or falter? The next few months will reveal whether they can outpace the broader market’s momentum. Read here

  • Global Macro and Investment Implications of President Trump Win: Rees Chan outlines U.S. reindustrialization under Trump, emphasizing domestic growth, defense spending, and a lower dollar. He anticipates significant opportunities for India, particularly in manufacturing and defense, while U.S. tech giants may face heightened regulatory pressure and challenges.Watch here

  • India’s middle class tightens its belt, squeezed by food inflation: India’s urban spending is slowing, with middle-class budgets squeezed by persistent inflation. While top earners continue to spend, the middle segment shrinks, affecting major consumer goods firms. This shift raises questions about the long-term stability of India’s economic growth. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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Bazaar Ki Baat – May 2023

Bazaar Ki Baat is a compilation of monthly market & sector update together with relevant events / occurrences in the economy and personal finance world.

In the 8th edition of “Bazaar ki baat”, we discuss the transformational changes in India over the last decade, Q4FY23 Earnings review, how have the earnings grown across sectors over the years, and Term Insurance – ideal cover and ideal age.

Below are the various topics discussed with their timestamp, so that you can directly jump to the section you like to watch.

• 00:00 – Monthly performance of market – Transformational decade
for India

• 05:54 – Sector performance – Earnings driven

• 05:54 – How did India Inc. fare in Q4FY23?

• 11:00 – Insights from the Historical earnings performance of
various sectors

• 14:31 – Term Insurance – what is the ideal cover and ideal age of the cover.

In case you have any questions, please put them as comments.