Posted on

CAGR Insights – 13 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

November Inflation Eases to 5.48%

In November 2024, India’s retail inflation showed a significant decline, easing to 5.48% from 6.21% in October. This decrease brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 2-6%, which is a crucial indicator for monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates.

Key Highlights of November Inflation:

CPI Trends: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell primarily due to a reduction in food prices, which had surged in previous months. The year-on-year inflation rate for food was recorded at 9.04%, with notable declines in the prices of vegetables, pulses, and other essential commodities.

Urban vs. Rural Inflation: Urban areas experienced a lower inflation rate of 4.83%, while rural inflation was higher at 5.95%. This disparity highlights the ongoing challenges in rural economies, where food prices remain a significant concern

Personal Finance

  • Transparency in Insurance: Why Honest Declarations and Partner Involvement Matter: Insurers share key consumer details, making honesty crucial in insurance declarations. Radha’s case revealed her late husband’s non-disclosure of health issues, leading to claim rejection. Read here

  • Bank account, bank locker rule change: Lok Sabha passes new Banking Amendment Bill, allowing up to 4 nominees in savings, locker accounts: The Lok Sabha has passed the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2024, allowing up to four nominees for bank accounts, deposits, and lockers. This change simplifies fund distribution and ensures smoother access for nominees after the account holder’s death. Read here
  • New SIP rule: SEBI mandates MF companies to process cancellations in 2 days: SEBI has reduced SIP cancellation processing to two working days from ten, effective December 1, 2024. The reform ensures uniform timelines, faster control, transparency, and operational efficiency, enhancing investor convenience and trust in the mutual fund ecosystem. Read here

Investing

  • FPI participation in Indian equity-derivative markets rising: SMC Global: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are returning to Indian markets, attracted by steady economic growth and opportunities in equities and derivatives. SMC Global reports rising FPI participation, complemented by expanding domestic trading from tier-3 and tier-4 cities via mobile apps. Read here
  • Investing in 2025: Headwinds and tailwinds: After tripling since 2020 lows, markets face uncertainty in 2025 amid global economic risks, Trump’s unpredictable policies, and high valuations. US tariff threats, rising dollar strength, and cautious investors challenge emerging markets, including India. Read here
  • Gold Price Outlook 2025: Key Trends Shaping the Future of Gold: Gold has surged 28% in 2024, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and market volatility. Modest 2025 growth is expected, with potential upside from central bank demand and risks from monetary policy shifts and China’s economic dynamics. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India needs USD 2.2 trillion investment on infra to become a 7$ trillion economy before 2030: Real estate consultant Knight Frank India released a report, ‘India Infrastructure: Reviving Private Investments’, which mentioned that “ an estimated investment of USD 2.2 trillion into infrastructure development is imperative to support India’s GDP size to expand to USD 7 trillion by 2030.” Read here
  • 69% growth in rural female employment during 2018-23, says government report: India’s female labour force participation (LFPR) rose significantly, driven by government schemes like Mudra loans and SHGs. Rural LFPR surged (~69%), with interstate variations, while urban gains were modest. Marital status, age, and childcare significantly influenced LFPR trends. Read here

  • India In 2030: $7 Trillion Economy Dream Needs $2.2 Trillion Investment In Infrastructure, Says Report: India needs $2.2 trillion infrastructure investment to reach a $7 trillion economy by 2030. Private sector participation has dropped significantly, stressing government finances. Addressing delays, financing issues, and revenue risks can revive private investments and ensure sustainable growth. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

****
That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

Posted on

CAGR Insights – 6 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on December 6, 2024, where several significant decisions were made:

  1. Repo Rate Maintained: The RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. This decision comes amid rising inflation and slowing GDP growth, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of economic challenges.
  2. Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) Cut: The RBI announced a 50 basis points cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), reducing it to 4%. This move is expected to release approximately ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system, aimed at enhancing liquidity and stimulating credit growth.
  3. Inflation Concerns: Inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.8%. For Q3, it is expected to rise to 5.7%, but it is anticipated to decline to 4.5% in Q4. The RBI’s mandate is to keep inflation within a target range of 2-6%, and the current figures are above this threshold.
  4. GDP Growth Outlook: India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter fell to 5.4%, the lowest in seven quarters, prompting discussions about potential rate cuts in future meetings if economic conditions do not improve.
  5. Governor’s Term Conclusion: This MPC meeting is particularly notable as it may be the last chaired by Governor Shaktikanta Das, whose term ends on December 10, 2024. Speculation surrounds his potential extension, which could influence future policy directions.

These highlights underscore the RBI’s balancing act between managing inflation and supporting economic growth amid challenging conditions.

Personal Finance

  • How To Build a Robust Retirement Portfolio: A Data-Driven Approach: Retirement planning becomes more critical as you near the end of your career, with risks higher in retirement. Monte Carlo simulations offer a way to explore various financial outcomes, helping you adjust your strategy based on uncertainty and assumptions. Read here
  • Retirees, a Rich Life Does Not Require Spending More Money: Retirement isn’t about spending more money but finding contentment in life’s simpler pleasures. While financial advisors emphasize higher withdrawal rates, true fulfilment comes from enjoying time, peace, and personal satisfaction. Read here
  • EPFO Changes Provident Fund Rules, Aadhaar No Longer Mandatory for PF Claim: EPFO has removed the mandatory Aadhaar linking for PF claims. Employees without Aadhaar can use alternative documents like passports or PAN cards for verification. Claims above Rs 5 lakh will require employer verification, and UAN consistency is advised for faster processing. Read here

Investing

  • Silver Buying Opportunity: Gold’s higher price compared to silver is driven by central banks hoarding gold as a monetary asset, giving it unmatched demand. Silver, though abundant and industrially essential, lacks this prestige, making it a hidden gem—ready to shine when financial chaos sparks a rush for precious metals. Read here

  • Factor Analysis: A Hands-On Introductory Workshop Using Indian Market Data: Dive into the world of quantitative fund analysis with Rajan Raju, visiting faculty at IIM Ahmedabad and a veteran banker. In this insightful workshop, Rajan explores key models such as the CAPM and Fama-French Model, using live examples from Indian funds to provide practical understanding. Perfect for finance enthusiasts and professionals looking to sharpen their analytical skills. Watch here
  • Nifty 50 after US Elections: Historical trends indicate a bullish 2025 for the Indian stock market: The Nifty 50 is poised for a bullish outlook in 2025, supported by historical trends showing strong performance following US elections and in odd-numbered years. A favorable technical setup, including a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern, further boosts optimism for significant gains. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • Services sector growth drops; inflation at 12-year high: India’s services sector growth slowed in November, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 58.4 from 58.5 in October. Despite weaker new orders and output growth, employment surged to its highest pace since the survey began in 2005, driven by increased hiring of both permanent and temporary staff. Read here
  • India has miles to cover before cashing in on China’s big loss: India has struggled to capitalize on the “China Plus One” strategy compared to countries like Vietnam and Thailand, due to factors like labor costs and tax laws. However, it has opportunities to enhance manufacturing, particularly in high-tech industries, amid global shifts away from China. Read here
  • Karnataka to soon have circular economy policy: Karnataka is developing India’s first circular economic policy, mandating 20% sustainable construction materials. Minister Priyank Kharge emphasized Karnataka’s potential in proptech and real estate, aiming for sustainable growth with collaboration between industry, government, and the realty sector. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

****
That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

Posted on

CAGR Insights – 29 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

As we are close to wrapping up 2024, the Indian financial scene is vibrant and dynamic, offering both challenges and opportunities for investors. Here’s what you need to know to make informed decisions:

1. Gold: The Shining Asset

Gold has always been a safe haven, and recent trends reinforce this. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has purchased 78 tonnes of gold this year, bringing total reserves to 882 tonnes—the highest share since 1999. With gold imports skyrocketing to $7.13 billion in October alone, driven by festive demand, now might be a great time to consider adding gold or gold-related investments to your portfolio. Gold ETFs are also seeing record inflows, with INR 19.6 billion invested in October.

2. Foreign Investment Trends

Despite recent volatility, foreign direct investment (FDI) in India surged by 23.3% in 2023-24, with the U.S. leading the charge. This indicates strong international confidence in India’s growth story. As an investor, look for sectors attracting FDI, such as technology and renewable energy, which are poised for significant growth.

3. Infrastructure Opportunities

The Finance Minister’s call for faster capital investment rollout is crucial, with only ₹50,069 crore approved out of an allocated ₹1.5 lakh crore for infrastructure projects this fiscal year. This presents a golden opportunity for investors in construction and related sectors as the government seeks to boost economic activity.

4. Interest Rates and Inflation

With inflation concerns still on the radar, keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in interest rates can significantly impact your investment returns and borrowing costs.

Personal Finance

  • Cabinet approves PAN 2.0: Will you have to apply for a new one? PAN 2.0 is here. Transforming taxation with faster processing, seamless data integration, eco-friendly paperless systems, and enhanced security—bringing a smarter, more efficient way to manage your financial identity. Read here
  • India may soon announce EPFO 3.0 plan; subscribers likely to get option to withdraw PF via ATMs: The government plans EPFO 3.0, offering features like lifting the 12% contribution cap, ATM withdrawals by 2025, and higher pension contributions. The goal is greater flexibility and improved retirement benefits for subscribers. Read here

Investing

  • Market Turmoil: Can Domestic Flows Counter $55B Equity Surge and FII Exodus? Will India’s surging $55B equity supply outpace record SIP inflows and FII exits? Learn what’s driving market volatility and where the next big opportunities lie! Read here
  • Here’s how Warren Buffett says he’d start investing today: Warren Buffett suggests looking for hidden opportunities in smaller, overlooked companies, where significant value might be lurking. In these under-the-radar stocks, there’s potential for surprising returns, though success requires deep knowledge and a bit of risk. Read here
  • Why Indian equities are thriving while global markets are grappling with declines: Amid global economic uncertainty, India’s equity markets remain resilient, driven by strong domestic institutional investments and improving sentiment. While global markets face declines, India’s stability, attractive valuations, and growth prospects make it an appealing investment opportunity. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India’s gig economy could add 90 mn jobs enabled by large multinationals: The gig economy in India is projected to grow to $455 billion by 2024, contributing 1.25% to GDP and creating 90 million jobs. It supports sectors like e-commerce and delivery, with efforts to improve worker conditions and promote inclusive growth. Read here
  • Indian economy to bounce back for 3 big factors: Here’s what Morgan Stanley forecasts: India’s economy is expected to recover, with GDP growth forecasted to reach 6.7% in Q4 FY25. Government spending, food inflation moderation, and a recovering job market are key drivers, while Q3 slowdown was attributed to reduced government spending. Read here
  • India’s Defence Sector Presents Long Runway of Growth: India’s defence sector is poised for substantial and sustained growth, driven by increasing capital expenditure, according to global investment banking firm JP Morgan. Key factors underpinning this growth include rapidly expanding defence exports, a significant emphasis on domestic manufacturing, high returns on capital employed (RoCE), and robust cash flows. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

****
That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

Posted on

CAGR Insights – 22 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

Image

Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

Recent developments, such as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) $9.6 billion purchase of foreign currency to stabilize the rupee amid speculation around Federal Reserve rate cuts, offer valuable lessons for personal finance and investing.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Diversification: Just as the RBI diversifies its foreign reserves, individual investors should consider spreading their investments across various asset classes—stocks, bonds, and even international currencies. This strategy can help mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations.
  2. Stay Informed: Understanding global economic indicators, such as interest rates and geopolitical tensions, is crucial. The RBI’s actions often reflect broader economic trends; similarly, staying informed can empower personal investors to make proactive decisions rather than reactive ones.
  3. Long-Term Perspective: While short-term currency movements may cause anxiety, a long-term investment strategy generally yields better results. The RBI’s focus on building a robust forex buffer underscores the importance of stability over time.

Conclusion

The RBI’s recent manoeuvres remind us that personal finance involves strategic investing informed by economic trends. By diversifying and maintaining a long-term view, individuals can navigate financial uncertainties while seizing emerging opportunities.

Personal Finance

  • Return On Effort (ROE) Is Your Key To Unlocking A Better Life: Are you grinding harder or working smarter? Discover how the Return on Effort (ROE) mindset can transform your approach to success, wealth, and time. Learn why investing smarter beats overworking—especially in bull markets. Read here
  • The Opposite of the Latte Factor: Skip the latte or earn the cash? The “Latte Factor” shows small daily savings can build wealth, but at the cost of joy. Why not flip the script—boost income instead, grow wealth, and keep your latte too! Read here
  • Missed an SIP payment? Here is how it may affect your mutual fund portfolio: Neglecting timely SIP payments can lead to consequences such as disruption of rupee cost averaging, reduced accumulation of units, and potential penalties. Consistency is key to achieving long-term wealth-building goals. Read here

Investing

  • India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman calls for lower interest rates: “Lower interest rates now!” urges Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, dismissing growth fears and promising action. As the RBI prioritizes inflation control, concerns over sluggish consumption and dimmed growth projections spark a heated economic debate. Read here
  • Govt Eyes Stake Sale in Four State-Run Banks to Meet Sebi Norms: The government plans to sell minority stakes in four state-run banks to meet SEBI’s 25% public shareholding norms by the August 2026 deadline. This includes Central Bank of India, UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, and Punjab & Sind Bank. Read here
  • The art of being a lucky investor: Just as a winning bridge hand depends on reading the cards, investment success lies in realistic goals, managing risks, and seizing opportunities. With markets dominated by overpriced giants, smart stock-picking is a golden ticket for active managers to shine. Ready to play your hand? Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India to be insulated from trade war between US and China: Goldman Sachs: India’s economy is expected to remain resilient amidst potential US-China trade tensions in 2025. While GDP growth may slow to 6.3% due to fiscal consolidation and tighter credit, cautious RBI rate cuts aim to balance growth and stability. Read here
  • Slack witnessed in Q2 “behind us”, RBI bulletin: The RBI’s November bulletin highlights India’s economic resilience, driven by festival consumption, rural demand, and robust services growth. Despite inflation risks, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture show promise, while global uncertainties pose challenges to financial stability. Read here
  • Indian kirana stores feel the heat as quick commerce sees rapid rise: Quick commerce platforms are reshaping India’s retail landscape, drawing customers from kiranas with steep discounts and convenience. Despite kiranas’ dominance in unorganised retail, aggressive FDI-backed tactics threaten their survival, prompting some to adopt home delivery to compete. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

****
That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.