CAGR Insights – 3rd Jan 2025

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

Understanding Operation Twist in Monetary Policy

Operation Twist is an innovative monetary policy tool used by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to influence interest rates and stimulate economic growth. This approach involves the simultaneous buying of long-term government securities while selling short-term securities.

The primary goal is to lower the yields on long-term bonds, making borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses. The concept originated in the United States in 1961 and was later adopted by the RBI during challenging economic times, particularly in 2019 and 2020. By purchasing long-term securities, the RBI increases their demand, which in turn raises their prices and lowers their yields. Conversely, selling short-term securities increases their supply, leading to a rise in their yields. This “twist” in the yield curve helps to flatten it, encouraging investments by reducing the cost of long-term borrowing.

The necessity for Operation Twist arose from the limitations of traditional monetary policy tools. For instance, even after significant cuts to the repo rate, banks were slow to pass on these benefits to consumers, resulting in sluggish credit growth. By implementing Operation Twist, the RBI aims to enhance liquidity in the market and stimulate economic activity through more accessible financing options.

Personal Finance

  • Don’t bet against biology: In 2024, the big takeaway was not to bet against biology. Just as physical decline accelerates with age, neglecting health can impact long-term financial goals. Prioritizing health ensures the wealth you build remains valuable throughout your life. Read here
  • New EPS Rule From January 1: Pensioners Can Now Withdraw Monthly Pension from Any Bank Branch: Pensioners under the (EPS), 1995, can withdraw their pensions from any bank branch across India from 1st Jan 2025. This transformative move aims to make pension disbursement more convenient and accessible for over 70 million beneficiaries. Read here
  • Taxes 2025: How to reduce tax liability in FY25; check these investment options: It is January 2025, and taxpayers have nearly three months to review their tax payments and obligations. It is crucial for taxpayers to assess their financial situation and proactively reduce their tax liabilities. Read here

Investing

  • F&O Trading Is India’s Largest Casino, Focus On Businesses Surviving Tough Periods: Sanjay Bakshi: What sets great investors apart? Sanjay Bakshi shares insights on patience, market understanding, and the principles that guide his investment journey in this rare and thoughtful conversation. Watch here

  • No One To Blame: Investing is brutally personal—sell winners too soon, hold losers too long, or chase bad stocks. But blaming others—markets, management, or luck—only masks your mistakes. Own them. Growth comes when you face the mirror, not excuses. Read here
  • RBI seen loosening stranglehold on rupee in 2025: The Reserve Bank of India will need to rethink its foreign exchange strategy and loosen its hold on the rupee in 2025, economists said, with the currency at its strongest against peers in at least two decades in trade-weighted terms. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India’s electronics manufacturing set to hit $140 billion in FY25, exports drive growth: India’s electronics manufacturing sector is expected to grow 15% in FY25, reaching $135-140 billion, up from $115 billion in FY24, according to industry sources. While robust exports are fuelling this expansion, stagnant domestic demand presents challenges to sustaining overall growth momentum. Read here
  • India’s Economy in 2024: GDP Growth and Global Ranking: In 2024, India continued with economic expansion, ensuring its status as an emerging global economic powerhouse. With a 6.6 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, the country retained its position as the world’s fifth-largest economy, steadily narrowing the gap with Germany, which ranks fourth at present. This performance showed India’s consistent trajectory of growth, marked by strategic initiatives and focused economic policies. Read here
  • 2025 Forecast: What’s coming for the Indian economy in 2025 as it seeks more purple patches?
    India will have to navigate geopolitical headwinds, tame domestic inflation and nudge the private sector to further loosen their purse strings as the world’s fastest-growing major economy seeks more purple patches in 2025, leaving behind September quarter growth blues. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 27 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

RBI’s Consumer Confidence Survey

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

Understanding Fed’s Dot Plot

The dot plot is an essential tool used by the Federal Reserve to communicate its outlook on future interest rates. Here’s what you need to know:

What is the Dot Plot?

  • Definition: The dot plot is a graphical representation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members’ projections for the federal funds rate over the next few years and in the longer term.
  • Visualization: Each dot represents an individual member’s forecast, providing a visual summary of their expectations.

Importance of the Dot Plot

  • Quarterly Updates: The dot plot is updated four times a year, reflecting real-time assessments of economic conditions.
  • Market Insight: Investors and analysts closely monitor the dot plot as it serves as a forward guidance tool, influencing market expectations regarding monetary policy.

Recent Trends

In the latest update, the median projection indicated only two interest rate cuts by 2025, suggesting a more cautious approach compared to previous forecasts.

This shift highlights how economic factors, such as inflation and labor market conditions, impact Fed decisions.

Personal Finance

  • Budget 2025: Govt may cut income tax rates to lift consumption, says report: India’s budget buzz is building, and a potential income tax cut is on the horizon! With the economy slowing and the middle class feeling the pinch, there’s talk of giving taxpayers a little extra relief. Read here

  • Confused as how GST hike on used car will work? Here’s how a higher GST of 18% will impact individuals and businesses: The GST Council’s latest move: an 18% tax on used car sales for specific vehicles, including EVs and larger engines! While most businesses can’t claim input tax credit, car showrooms and transporters get a pass. To learn who’s paying and how. Read here

  • Why your credit score is not improving despite timely bill payments: A stagnant credit score despite timely bill payments can be due to high credit utilization, inaccuracies in credit reports, limited credit mix, too many credit applications, or past negative records. To improve the score, manage credit usage, maintain timely payments, and monitor credit reports for errors. Read here

Investing

  • What valuations of Indian banks are indicating? Indian private banks are turning heads! Despite recent underperformance, they’re trading at compelling valuations with strong fundamentals backing them. With profitability at decade highs and exciting growth potential, is this the moment for private banks to reclaim their spotlight? The story is just getting started Read here
  • A Litany of “I Told You So”: The 2020–2024 Indian market flipped the investing playbook, smashing old rules as sky-high valuations defied correction calls. Everyone’s yelling “I told you so,” but timing was a wild card. The real lesson? Read here

  • Why is one Nasdaq FOF earning 60 per cent more than the other? Imagine this: two Nasdaq-100 mutual funds in your portfolio, both tracking the same index, both aiming for identical goals. Yet, their one-year returns couldn’t be more different—35% versus 56%! What’s happening behind the scenes? A fascinating interplay of demand, regulations, and pricing quirks is rewriting the script. Curious? Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India power equipment sector – Recouping the lost decade: India’s power sector is charging ahead! With rising demand from manufacturing, renewable energy, and data centres, investments are set to skyrocket. By FY32, capacity will double, unlocking huge opportunities for power equipment manufacturers. Read here
  • India Sees Economic Growth at 6.5% for the Year Through March: India’s economy is forecast to grow at 6.5% in FY 2024-25, down from 8.2% last year. Slower growth, global trade risks, and currency weakness impact the outlook, with economists expecting a possible RBI rate cut in February. Read here
  • Weak rupee to jack up key import bills: The weakening of the Indian rupee could increase the import bill by $15 billion, with significant impacts on commodities like edible oils, pulses, and fertilizers. Electronics, particularly smartphones, may become costlier, while the impact on energy imports is offset by falling oil prices. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 20 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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(Source: Accel, Bessemer, Blume, Fireside, Lumikai)

Gyaan Ki Baat 

Fed Rate Cut: A Hawkish Move

The recent decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points is a pivotal development in U.S. monetary policy. This reduction, which marks the third consecutive cut in 2024, brings the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed’s objective with this move is to manage inflation while fostering economic growth.

Why Did the Fed Cut Rates?

  • Stimulating Economic Activity: Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, encouraging spending and investment. This can lead to increased economic activity, which is crucial for job creation and overall economic health.
  • Inflation Concerns: Despite the rate cuts, inflation remains a significant concern. As of November 2024, inflation was reported at 2.7%, above the Fed’s target of 2%. The central bank aims to strike a balance between supporting growth and keeping inflation in check.

Global Considerations:

The Fed’s monetary policy has ripple effects beyond U.S. borders. Emerging markets, including India, are particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates, as they can influence capital flows and exchange rates

Personal Finance

  • Learning from Mistakes: Mistakes are vital for growth, teaching valuable lessons through reflection and iteration. Separating ego from errors fosters objectivity, enabling improvement in investing and creativity. Embrace mistakes as opportunities to refine processes, enhance decision-making, and discover transformative insights. Read here

  • Do As I Say, Not as I Did: The best investment lessons often hide in plain sight, but are we really looking in the right places? Success leaves clues—but not always in the advice given. This article uncovers what truly matters. Read here

  • EPFO gives employers till Jan 31 to submit pending forms for higher pension: The EPFO has extended the deadline for employers to process pending higher pension applications until January 31, 2025. Employers must submit replies by January 15 for 466,000 cases requiring clarification. The extension addresses a significant backlog in pension claims. Read here

Investing

  • Three Things I Think I Think – Strategic Reserves and Stuff: Forget Bitcoin, the US government should invest in American innovation! Cullen Roche slams the proposed Bitcoin reserve as a “scam,” while marvelling at US market dominance that’s spooking even him. Meanwhile, while partisan politics rage, the silent majority (Independent voters) remain surprisingly level-headed about the economy. Read here

  • The 3 Best Inflation Hedges: Inflation may feel like a silent thief, but with the right strategies—like growing your income, locking in housing costs, and investing wisely—you can turn the tables and come out ahead. Read here

  • Sebi Board Decides to Tighten SME IPO Norms, Revise Investment Banking Rules, Expand UPSI Definition: Sebi approved measures including stricter SME IPO norms, revised investment banking regulations, and expanded UPSI definition. It introduced reforms for Debenture Trustees, ESG rating providers, and financial entities, along with mandatory electronic payments for demat accounts and AI compliance safeguards. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • Will India’s economic growth pick up pace? Nirmala Sitharaman answers: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman acknowledged that July to September was a challenging period for the economy but called the slowdown a ‘temporary blip’. Read here

  • Indian economy to grow 6.6 pc in FY26: Ind-Ra: India Ratings projects 6.6% GDP growth for FY26, up from 6.4% in FY25. Investments will drive growth, reversing the cyclical slowdown. Despite easing monetary conditions, fiscal and external tightening are expected to persist, impacting the economy. Read here

  • In 2025, the hurdles to India’s growth: India may overtake Japan as the fourth-largest economy by 2025, but risks include lower growth and fiscal contraction. The private sector’s investment role is uncertain, while global volatility, inflation, and protectionist trade policies challenge economic stability. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

CAGR Insights – 13 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

November Inflation Eases to 5.48%

In November 2024, India’s retail inflation showed a significant decline, easing to 5.48% from 6.21% in October. This decrease brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 2-6%, which is a crucial indicator for monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates.

Key Highlights of November Inflation:

CPI Trends: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell primarily due to a reduction in food prices, which had surged in previous months. The year-on-year inflation rate for food was recorded at 9.04%, with notable declines in the prices of vegetables, pulses, and other essential commodities.

Urban vs. Rural Inflation: Urban areas experienced a lower inflation rate of 4.83%, while rural inflation was higher at 5.95%. This disparity highlights the ongoing challenges in rural economies, where food prices remain a significant concern

Personal Finance

  • Transparency in Insurance: Why Honest Declarations and Partner Involvement Matter: Insurers share key consumer details, making honesty crucial in insurance declarations. Radha’s case revealed her late husband’s non-disclosure of health issues, leading to claim rejection. Read here

  • Bank account, bank locker rule change: Lok Sabha passes new Banking Amendment Bill, allowing up to 4 nominees in savings, locker accounts: The Lok Sabha has passed the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2024, allowing up to four nominees for bank accounts, deposits, and lockers. This change simplifies fund distribution and ensures smoother access for nominees after the account holder’s death. Read here
  • New SIP rule: SEBI mandates MF companies to process cancellations in 2 days: SEBI has reduced SIP cancellation processing to two working days from ten, effective December 1, 2024. The reform ensures uniform timelines, faster control, transparency, and operational efficiency, enhancing investor convenience and trust in the mutual fund ecosystem. Read here

Investing

  • FPI participation in Indian equity-derivative markets rising: SMC Global: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are returning to Indian markets, attracted by steady economic growth and opportunities in equities and derivatives. SMC Global reports rising FPI participation, complemented by expanding domestic trading from tier-3 and tier-4 cities via mobile apps. Read here
  • Investing in 2025: Headwinds and tailwinds: After tripling since 2020 lows, markets face uncertainty in 2025 amid global economic risks, Trump’s unpredictable policies, and high valuations. US tariff threats, rising dollar strength, and cautious investors challenge emerging markets, including India. Read here
  • Gold Price Outlook 2025: Key Trends Shaping the Future of Gold: Gold has surged 28% in 2024, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and market volatility. Modest 2025 growth is expected, with potential upside from central bank demand and risks from monetary policy shifts and China’s economic dynamics. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India needs USD 2.2 trillion investment on infra to become a 7$ trillion economy before 2030: Real estate consultant Knight Frank India released a report, ‘India Infrastructure: Reviving Private Investments’, which mentioned that “ an estimated investment of USD 2.2 trillion into infrastructure development is imperative to support India’s GDP size to expand to USD 7 trillion by 2030.” Read here
  • 69% growth in rural female employment during 2018-23, says government report: India’s female labour force participation (LFPR) rose significantly, driven by government schemes like Mudra loans and SHGs. Rural LFPR surged (~69%), with interstate variations, while urban gains were modest. Marital status, age, and childcare significantly influenced LFPR trends. Read here

  • India In 2030: $7 Trillion Economy Dream Needs $2.2 Trillion Investment In Infrastructure, Says Report: India needs $2.2 trillion infrastructure investment to reach a $7 trillion economy by 2030. Private sector participation has dropped significantly, stressing government finances. Addressing delays, financing issues, and revenue risks can revive private investments and ensure sustainable growth. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

****
That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.