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CAGR Insights – 6 Dec 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on December 6, 2024, where several significant decisions were made:

  1. Repo Rate Maintained: The RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. This decision comes amid rising inflation and slowing GDP growth, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of economic challenges.
  2. Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) Cut: The RBI announced a 50 basis points cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), reducing it to 4%. This move is expected to release approximately ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system, aimed at enhancing liquidity and stimulating credit growth.
  3. Inflation Concerns: Inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.8%. For Q3, it is expected to rise to 5.7%, but it is anticipated to decline to 4.5% in Q4. The RBI’s mandate is to keep inflation within a target range of 2-6%, and the current figures are above this threshold.
  4. GDP Growth Outlook: India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter fell to 5.4%, the lowest in seven quarters, prompting discussions about potential rate cuts in future meetings if economic conditions do not improve.
  5. Governor’s Term Conclusion: This MPC meeting is particularly notable as it may be the last chaired by Governor Shaktikanta Das, whose term ends on December 10, 2024. Speculation surrounds his potential extension, which could influence future policy directions.

These highlights underscore the RBI’s balancing act between managing inflation and supporting economic growth amid challenging conditions.

Personal Finance

  • How To Build a Robust Retirement Portfolio: A Data-Driven Approach: Retirement planning becomes more critical as you near the end of your career, with risks higher in retirement. Monte Carlo simulations offer a way to explore various financial outcomes, helping you adjust your strategy based on uncertainty and assumptions. Read here
  • Retirees, a Rich Life Does Not Require Spending More Money: Retirement isn’t about spending more money but finding contentment in life’s simpler pleasures. While financial advisors emphasize higher withdrawal rates, true fulfilment comes from enjoying time, peace, and personal satisfaction. Read here
  • EPFO Changes Provident Fund Rules, Aadhaar No Longer Mandatory for PF Claim: EPFO has removed the mandatory Aadhaar linking for PF claims. Employees without Aadhaar can use alternative documents like passports or PAN cards for verification. Claims above Rs 5 lakh will require employer verification, and UAN consistency is advised for faster processing. Read here

Investing

  • Silver Buying Opportunity: Gold’s higher price compared to silver is driven by central banks hoarding gold as a monetary asset, giving it unmatched demand. Silver, though abundant and industrially essential, lacks this prestige, making it a hidden gem—ready to shine when financial chaos sparks a rush for precious metals. Read here

  • Factor Analysis: A Hands-On Introductory Workshop Using Indian Market Data: Dive into the world of quantitative fund analysis with Rajan Raju, visiting faculty at IIM Ahmedabad and a veteran banker. In this insightful workshop, Rajan explores key models such as the CAPM and Fama-French Model, using live examples from Indian funds to provide practical understanding. Perfect for finance enthusiasts and professionals looking to sharpen their analytical skills. Watch here
  • Nifty 50 after US Elections: Historical trends indicate a bullish 2025 for the Indian stock market: The Nifty 50 is poised for a bullish outlook in 2025, supported by historical trends showing strong performance following US elections and in odd-numbered years. A favorable technical setup, including a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern, further boosts optimism for significant gains. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • Services sector growth drops; inflation at 12-year high: India’s services sector growth slowed in November, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 58.4 from 58.5 in October. Despite weaker new orders and output growth, employment surged to its highest pace since the survey began in 2005, driven by increased hiring of both permanent and temporary staff. Read here
  • India has miles to cover before cashing in on China’s big loss: India has struggled to capitalize on the “China Plus One” strategy compared to countries like Vietnam and Thailand, due to factors like labor costs and tax laws. However, it has opportunities to enhance manufacturing, particularly in high-tech industries, amid global shifts away from China. Read here
  • Karnataka to soon have circular economy policy: Karnataka is developing India’s first circular economic policy, mandating 20% sustainable construction materials. Minister Priyank Kharge emphasized Karnataka’s potential in proptech and real estate, aiming for sustainable growth with collaboration between industry, government, and the realty sector. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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CAGR Insights – 22 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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Gyaan Ki Baat 

Recent developments, such as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) $9.6 billion purchase of foreign currency to stabilize the rupee amid speculation around Federal Reserve rate cuts, offer valuable lessons for personal finance and investing.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Diversification: Just as the RBI diversifies its foreign reserves, individual investors should consider spreading their investments across various asset classes—stocks, bonds, and even international currencies. This strategy can help mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations.
  2. Stay Informed: Understanding global economic indicators, such as interest rates and geopolitical tensions, is crucial. The RBI’s actions often reflect broader economic trends; similarly, staying informed can empower personal investors to make proactive decisions rather than reactive ones.
  3. Long-Term Perspective: While short-term currency movements may cause anxiety, a long-term investment strategy generally yields better results. The RBI’s focus on building a robust forex buffer underscores the importance of stability over time.

Conclusion

The RBI’s recent manoeuvres remind us that personal finance involves strategic investing informed by economic trends. By diversifying and maintaining a long-term view, individuals can navigate financial uncertainties while seizing emerging opportunities.

Personal Finance

  • Return On Effort (ROE) Is Your Key To Unlocking A Better Life: Are you grinding harder or working smarter? Discover how the Return on Effort (ROE) mindset can transform your approach to success, wealth, and time. Learn why investing smarter beats overworking—especially in bull markets. Read here
  • The Opposite of the Latte Factor: Skip the latte or earn the cash? The “Latte Factor” shows small daily savings can build wealth, but at the cost of joy. Why not flip the script—boost income instead, grow wealth, and keep your latte too! Read here
  • Missed an SIP payment? Here is how it may affect your mutual fund portfolio: Neglecting timely SIP payments can lead to consequences such as disruption of rupee cost averaging, reduced accumulation of units, and potential penalties. Consistency is key to achieving long-term wealth-building goals. Read here

Investing

  • India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman calls for lower interest rates: “Lower interest rates now!” urges Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, dismissing growth fears and promising action. As the RBI prioritizes inflation control, concerns over sluggish consumption and dimmed growth projections spark a heated economic debate. Read here
  • Govt Eyes Stake Sale in Four State-Run Banks to Meet Sebi Norms: The government plans to sell minority stakes in four state-run banks to meet SEBI’s 25% public shareholding norms by the August 2026 deadline. This includes Central Bank of India, UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, and Punjab & Sind Bank. Read here
  • The art of being a lucky investor: Just as a winning bridge hand depends on reading the cards, investment success lies in realistic goals, managing risks, and seizing opportunities. With markets dominated by overpriced giants, smart stock-picking is a golden ticket for active managers to shine. Ready to play your hand? Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India to be insulated from trade war between US and China: Goldman Sachs: India’s economy is expected to remain resilient amidst potential US-China trade tensions in 2025. While GDP growth may slow to 6.3% due to fiscal consolidation and tighter credit, cautious RBI rate cuts aim to balance growth and stability. Read here
  • Slack witnessed in Q2 “behind us”, RBI bulletin: The RBI’s November bulletin highlights India’s economic resilience, driven by festival consumption, rural demand, and robust services growth. Despite inflation risks, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture show promise, while global uncertainties pose challenges to financial stability. Read here
  • Indian kirana stores feel the heat as quick commerce sees rapid rise: Quick commerce platforms are reshaping India’s retail landscape, drawing customers from kiranas with steep discounts and convenience. Despite kiranas’ dominance in unorganised retail, aggressive FDI-backed tactics threaten their survival, prompting some to adopt home delivery to compete. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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CAGR Insights – 14 Nov 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

Image

Gyaan Ki Baat 

Recently, the Indian stock market has experienced a significant correction, with major indices seeing declines of over 10% from their peaks. This shift has raised concerns among investors, especially after a strong bull run in the past few years. While it may seem alarming, market corrections are a natural part of the investing cycle and offer important lessons for investors.

Why Market Corrections Happen:

Overvaluation: Stocks or entire sectors sometimes become overvalued due to excessive optimism, and when the market corrects, it brings the valuations back to more sustainable levels.

Economic Factors: Changes in the global or domestic economic environment—such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, or geopolitical tensions—can trigger corrections.

Investor Sentiment: A shift in investor sentiment, driven by fear or uncertainty, often leads to increased selling pressure, resulting in market declines.

The ongoing market correction in India, fueled by external economic factors and shifting investor sentiment, is a natural part of market cycles. While it might be unsettling, it is important to view it as an opportunity to reflect on your financial goals, review your investments, and stay focused on the long-term horizon. In the face of volatility, maintaining discipline and patience can help investors navigate corrections successfully and capitalize on opportunities that may arise.

Personal Finance

  • My $507.34 Ridiculous Mistake! A five-year mistake, silent price hikes, and hundreds lost on a service never used—could you be missing the same hidden cost? Read here

  • What NRIs need to know about investing via mutual funds in India: The NPCI now allows NRIs with NRE or NRO accounts to make UPI transactions linked to international mobile numbers. Available in countries like the US, UK, UAE, and Australia, the service enables NRIs to send money to family in India or make payments without traditional wire transfers, fee-free.Read here

  • How to make NPS contributions via the BHIM app: NPCI BHIM Services has just made retirement planning a whole lot easier. Now, you can directly contribute to your National Pension System (NPS) account right from the comfort of your smartphone. To know how to load the money through BHIM appRead here

Investing

  • Indian stock market: 8 key things that changed for market overnight – Gift Nifty, US inflation, to surging dollar: Sensex and Nifty 50 are set for a cautious start amid global market fluctuations and a strong US dollar. With US inflation spurring Fed rate cut, and relentless FII selling weighing on Indian stocks, the markets brace for continued volatility as key economic factors plays out. Read here

  • A New Dawn: Navigating Market Uncertainty and Seizing Opportunities: With inflation fears looming large and market volatility persisting, are investors taking the right steps to protect their portfolios? As interest rates rise, how will the bond market fare? Can the stock market weather the storm, especially in the tech sector? What strategies can investors employ to navigate these turbulent times? Watch here

  • Index Funds are the go-to choice for India’s young investors, shows survey: A recent survey reveals that index funds are highly favoured among Millennials and Gen Z, with nearly half of investors under 43 choosing them, compared to just 35% of Gen X and Boomers. Passive investing, particularly in sectoral indices, has seen rapid growth, pushing Assets Under Management to over Rs 11 trillion. Read here

  • RBI announces rules to reclassify FPI investment as FDI once it crosses 10% holding in Indian firms: RBI has streamlined the process for FPIs to reclassify their holdings as FDI if their stake in an Indian company exceeds 10 percent. Previously, FPIs exceeding this cap were required to either divest the surplus shares or reclassify them as FDI. To know more about the framework. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report: Indian banks anticipate steady growth in loans and earnings, though risks in unsecured lending and uncertain rate cuts could affect margins. Will they thrive or falter? The next few months will reveal whether they can outpace the broader market’s momentum. Read here

  • Global Macro and Investment Implications of President Trump Win: Rees Chan outlines U.S. reindustrialization under Trump, emphasizing domestic growth, defense spending, and a lower dollar. He anticipates significant opportunities for India, particularly in manufacturing and defense, while U.S. tech giants may face heightened regulatory pressure and challenges.Watch here

  • India’s middle class tightens its belt, squeezed by food inflation: India’s urban spending is slowing, with middle-class budgets squeezed by persistent inflation. While top earners continue to spend, the middle segment shrinks, affecting major consumer goods firms. This shift raises questions about the long-term stability of India’s economic growth. Read here

Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.

The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.

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CAGR Insights – 31 Oct 2024

CAGR Insights is a weekly newsletter full of insights from around the world of the web.

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Chart Ki Baat

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India’s GDP Growth Forecast

Gyaan Ki Baat 

The Art of Delayed Gratification

In the fast-paced world of instant gratification, the ability to delay immediate pleasure for greater rewards in the future is a powerful tool, especially in personal finance. This concept, often called delayed gratification, can significantly impact your financial health.

Why Delay Gratification?

  1. Build Wealth: Instead of splurging on every desire, saving and investing that money can lead to compound growth over time. Imagine the potential of that coffee shop budget turned into investments—what could that grow into?
  2. Achieve Financial Goals: Whether it’s a dream home, a vacation, or a comfortable retirement, every goal requires discipline. By prioritizing saving over spending, you’re actively paving the way toward those dreams.
  3. Reduce Financial Stress: Living within your means and prioritizing savings can create a financial cushion, reducing anxiety around unexpected expenses or emergencies.

In essence, mastering the art of delayed gratification not only strengthens your financial position but also fosters a mindset that values long-term benefits over short-term pleasures. So, the next time you’re tempted to make an impulsive purchase, remember: the joy of saving today can lead to a brighter financial future tomorrow!

Personal Finance

  • Planning to exchange old jewellery for new? Know the income tax rules: Did you know that selling your old jewellery could lead to unexpected tax liabilities? With new rules introduced in Budget 2024, it’s crucial to understand the nuances of capital gains tax and explore alternatives like digital gold to maximize your savings! Read here

  • New credit card rules: SBI Card increases this credit card charges from November 1, 2024; check details: SBI Card has announced an increase in finance charges on all unsecured SBI Credit Cards, effective November 1, 2024. The new rate will be 3.75% per month, up from the current 3.50%. Notably, this change does not apply to the Shaurya Defense card. Read here

  • GST returns to become time-barred: No filing after 3 years: The GST Network will restrict the filing of certain GST returns more than three years past their due date, effective early 2025. Taxpayers must reconcile and file returns within this timeframe to avoid penalties, including potential registration cancellation and best judgment assessments by the GST department. Read here

Investing

  • How will the Equity Issuance Tsunami affect the market? The Indian stock market has seen a surge in demand due to increased household savings and institutional investments. However, a rise in supply from IPOs, promoter sales, and private equity exits is balancing this demand. Investors should be cautious and focus on long-term investing, considering the potential impact of increased supply on market valuations. Watch here

  • Elcid Investments, India’s costliest stock went from ₹3 to ₹2,36,250. Here’s how: Once a humble penny stock at ₹3.21, Elcid Investments has rocketed to ₹2,36,250 per share, outshining even MRF! This jaw-dropping rise follows a BSE relisting, fueled by its prized 2.95% stake in Asian Paints—worth a staggering ₹8,500 crore—making it a powerhouse on Dalal Street. To learn more about how this transformation happened. Read here

  • SEBI wants mutual funds to deploy NFO proceeds within 30 days: SEBI has issued a consultation paper proposing that Asset Management Companies deploy funds from New Fund Offers within 30 business days of allotment. Non-compliance could lead to restrictions, including a ban on launching new schemes and mandatory reporting to trustees. Read here

Economy & Sectors

  • India’s job crisis: Getting better or worse? | Modi Govt’s record on employment: After a decade under Modi, India’s employment scene shows mixed progress. Employment rates have risen, yet the job quality lags, with most growth in low-wage informal sectors. The question remains: can government-driven initiatives bring enough quality jobs to meet demand, or will the private sector need to step up? Watch here

  • Why is India’s GDP growth so high but bank credit & consumption are slack, asks Swaminathan Aiyar? The finance ministry warns of growth risks from geopolitical issues and high valuations. Swaminathan Aiyar notes Indian market resilience relies on domestic investments, while the RBI’s cautious stance may lead to challenges in addressing inflation and growth. Read here

  • Economy ‘satisfactory’ in H1 of fiscal; choppy waters ahead, Finmin report: India’s economy showed satisfactory performance in H1 FY25, with projected growth between 6.5% and 7%, despite risks from geopolitical conflicts and elevated valuations. However, Nomura cautions of a cyclical slowdown, citing factors like high interest rates and declining urban demand. Read here

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Check out CAGRwealth smallcase portfolios

Both our smallcase portfolios are ranking well in the smallcase universe in terms of 1-year returns.


• CFF (launched in June 2022) – Ranked 1st amongst smallcase with medium volatility.

• CVM (launched in May 2022) – Ranked among Top 20 across the Momentum smallcase universe.

Do check it out here

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That’s it from our side. Have a great weekend ahead!

If you have any feedback that you would like to share, simply reply to this email.The content of this newsletter is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information outlined in this newsletter unless mentioned explicitly. The writer may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated in this newsletter.