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Are you taking the right investing decisions?

Much like the overconfident hare in the fable of “The Tortoise and the Hare”, people can well fall prey to the exaggerated notions of their own infallibility. Are you then, the tortoise or the hare, when it comes to handling your money or investing? What if we were to tell you that overconfidence bias can impact your investment decisions?

There is a very fine line of distinction between confidence and overconfidence. Overconfidence is the difference between ‘what you know’ and ‘what you think you know’.

A colleague of mine had no idea about investing and more specifically, about buying and selling stocks. It was during the regular lunch break discussions about the rising equity market, that he got fascinated with the idea of investing. What next? He started following the prices of stocks and in a trending market, he felt that he is successfully being able to predict the market movement.

The next logical step for him was to open a brokerage account with an equity broker. Kicked by his exuberance about the newly acquired skill, he started buying and selling stocks in small quantities. And his excitement knew no bounds when he started making some money. With the initial success he started to believe that he had the ability to predict the market. And that he had acquired a skill which could help him make money on a continuous and consistent basis. With the increased confidence he started taking bigger bets. But as equity markets do not behave rationally in the short run, there was an unforeseen event in the economy and his stocks started to fall. Seeing his portfolio in red, he had to exit all his positions and he lost faith in equity markets.

How do we then prevent ourselves from being overconfident about our financial decisions?

A financial decision demands a thorough review of attendant factors.

  • Are you getting sold on something that is too good to be true?
  • Are you being over enthusiastic? Optimism is good; but an excess of enthusiasm can be fraught with risk, because it involves haste and haste preempts caution.
  • Do you have enough logical reasons for the financial decision you are about to take? Remember, each deal presents distinct challenges. Tackle them wisely and.
  • Have you reflected enough on your past experiences and mistakes?
  • Have you consulted an expert advisor for a second opinion on your decision?

Determining answers to these questions will serve to offset the ‘overconfidence bias’ into your investment patterns.

How do we help?

Overconfidence is largely a result of misjudging one’s own judgement. At CAGRfunds, we give you the “second opinion” that you might just be looking for. We not only conduct a FREE audit of your current portfolio, but also give you the right financial advice for all your future goals. We therefore ensure that you do not mistakenly take very concentrated exposures to a particular asset class.

Write to us at contact@cagrfunds.com for a FREE audit of your existing portfolio.

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Salary over by 15th? 6 ways in which you can make it last longer

‘A penny saved is a penny earned’. Yet every month there comes a time when we have to choose between an evening out with friends or a boring dinner at home. Yes, a financial crunch is a bad situation but the truth is that we have all been there and done that. So let us tell you simple yet effective ways to last your salary a little longer.

1. Start budgeting:

Have an opinion on the Annual Budget? Well, how many of us have documented a budget for ourselves? There you are – Step 1: Budget your expenses. This helps us prioritize and thus keep a check on discretionary expenses. So yes, this means you cannot set aside money for a pair of shoes without paying your insurance premium. Learning how to choose what purchase desire can be postponed is probably the key here.

2. Make a list:

How many times have you gone out to the neighborhood departmental store and returned with stuff you had not planned to buy? Making unnecessary purchases is a tempting urge. And the best way to control this urge is to make a list of what is necessary and stick to it firmly. Tick the ones that you’ve taken and look only for those present in the list.

3. Do not get lured by combo offers

How exciting are BOGO (Buy One Get One) offers!! Sometimes they excite us so much that we end up buying 2 of something we didn’t need at all. If you are on a tight budget, this temptation could be dangerous. Allocation of money on the basis of need is the essential element here. Deals like these are usually to tempt the customers to buy things they don’t want. Are you going to fall prey to this tactic? Now you won’t!

 4. Use Prepaid plans

Despite excellent postpaid plans, we tend to be careless about the frequency and duration of our phone calls. Long distance calls, roaming and data consumption is something we don’t really keep a tab on. If this describes you, then you probably need to shift to a pre – paid plan. A pre – paid plan will not only help you reduce your phone bills, but will also help you inculcate a habit of putting a budget to the same.

5. Restrict usage of credit card:

While usage of plastic money is something even our Government is encouraging, it has its own flip sides. You must have felt the psychological difference when you pay with cash vs a credit card. When the crisp notes flow out of your wallet to the cashier, you tend to realize the amount of expense you are making. However, with a credit card, we sometimes don’t even look at the bill and just hand over our card for a convenient swipe. It is only when we get our credit card bills that our eye balls tend to drop out. Therefore, it is almost compulsory for us to restrict usage of credit card. We also recommend that you minimizing the number of credit cards you possess. However, as we move towards a cashless economy and rightly so, using a debit card is better to keep expenses in check.

6. Pay your credit card dues on time:

Often times, we overlook the due date of our credit card bills. While the bill amount might be low, penalty charges for late payment can be as high as 36% annually. Unknowingly, a sizable cash outflow indeed. It is therefore of utmost importance to pay our credit card bills before due date. A helpful tip in this regard is to pre schedule the payment a day prior to the due date. That ensures that the bill is paid even if we forget or get busy with something else.

How do we help?

At CAGRfunds, we help you craft a financial plan which will help you manage your salary better. We guide you to make disciplined investments right at the start of the month. This enables you to not worry about savings. As a result you become more organized with your spendings.

Whatsapp or call us on +91 9769356440 to know more.

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Frequent changes to your investment portfolio can be detrimental

The list of top performing stocks or mutual funds keeps changing frequently. This is of course obvious as the performance depends on various factors and some of these factors are not completely in control of the company’s management. Even good companies with sound management will face ups and downs. There is one obvious question that comes to every investor’s mind – Do we keep churning our portfolio frequently to exit the underperformer and buy the outperformer? My answer to this is overwhelming ‘No’. I believe churning of your portfolio too frequently will do more harm than good.

Let me try to explain further. During the last 15 years, Nifty (including dividend) has grown at an annual rate of 16.7%, to put it in simple terms, Rs. 100 invested 15 years back has now grown to more than 10 times. But, having said that, equity as an asset class is known to be volatile in short periods (see chart below). So, while investing in equity for short term may be tricky, the odds of making money in the long term are quite high.

Now, let us come back to ‘Power of Compounding’, which we had touched briefly in my last article (Read here). This has to be one of the most important financial lessons of all time. As the great Albert Einstein said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He, who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it”.

Here, we will see how holding your portfolio for the long term helps power of compounding play its magic in the most unusual way. If you hold your portfolio for long term, the winners in your portfolio will tend to become dominant, and the losers will become insignificant. The positive impact of the winners will significantly outweigh the negative contribution and your portfolio will compound significantly. Not sure, right? I can understand your circumspection.

Let me explain this by taking a simple two stock portfolio. Stock ‘A’ is a winner, gives 25% annual return over a period of 15 years, while Stock ‘B’ is declining by 25% annually. How has your portfolio performed? I would say good, rather great. Your portfolio has given an annual return of 19.4%. This example demonstrates the power of compounding.

This magic can also work for you. You just have to be patient and give your money long enough time to grow.

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Planning to fail in your golden years?

Yet again, a discussion with few friends on a Sunday afternoon has brought me here today. We were discussing about our future plans and each one of us wanted to retire early and retire rich. No surprises there. What surprised me is that my friends only have a vague idea, no concrete plans about how they are going to achieve this goal. This is true for most of us. With rising cost of living and increasing life expectancy, the need to plan for one’s golden years is absolutely necessary.

Lack of a concrete plan for retirement may lead to problems just when you are least prepared for it. As one of the founding father of the United States, Benjamin Franklin, so succinctly put “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail”.

Most of us tend to underestimate the retirement corpus. If you need Rs. 50,000 for monthly expenses today, will you need the same after 30 years, when you retire? The answer is no. You will need Rs. 2.2 lakhs every month, assuming just 5% inflation. There it is, now I have your attention. Inflation leads to reduction in purchasing power, by slowly but steadily eating up your money. Learn more about it here.

Let me tell you one more thing. With increasing life expectancy, the non-earning period in an individual’s life is expanding. Someone retiring at age 60 after working for 30 years could live on for another 25 years or more. Assuming your current age of 30 years, current monthly expense of Rs. 50,000, inflation of 5% and retirement age of 60 years, the amount of retirement corpus one needs for 25 years after retirement is Rs 5.3 cr and for 30 years after retirement is Rs. 6.1 crore. These are not small sums by any measure. If you do not start to plan now, there is a high probability to fall short.

Are you now thinking when to start investing for retirement? The answer is as EARLY as possible. If you do that, your money gets more time to grow. Each rupee gained generates further returns. This is called “power of compounding”, and this helps you get rich… and richer over time.

Let us take the above example, say you start investing at age of 30 years and continue to do so for next 30 years. To achieve a corpus of Rs. 5.3 cr at retirement, assuming 12% return on your investment, you will have to invest Rs. 15,391 per month. If you delay the investment by even 5 years, the same monthly installment doubles itself to Rs. 28,630.

Don’t feel overwhelmed by all the numbers shown above, you can take help from your financial advisor for this. The key is to start early, invest regularly and choose the right products for your investments.