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Stand out from the crowd while following the herd

If you were standing at the crossroads, in a new city, unsure of which direction to take and you observe 9 out of 10 people moving towards the left, isn’t it likely you will follow the more numerous group? This is an illustration of the herd mentality that we are all prone to, especially in unfamiliar situations. “When in doubt, play safe”, is the philosophy that drives this behavior. Ever wondered why this happens?

1) Social Acceptance

It is natural for us to crave acceptance in a group and wish not to be perceived as someone who goes against the crowd. This social pressure often compels us to choose options we would otherwise not have considered.

2) The Ad Populum Fallacy

We are ensnared by this fallacy when we happen to be unclear about the choices to opt for. Believing that we lack some information that others have access to, we choose to endorse the choices of those others, even if the preference may appear irrational at first. We convince ourselves that it is unlikely that so many people can be wrong simultaneously.

If many believe in a particular outcome, the chances of them being correct are high, isn’t it?

This may or may not be true. ‘Argumentum ad Verecundiam’ or ‘Argument from Authority’ is also sometimes termed ‘Appeal to False Authority’ or ‘Appeal to Unqualified Authority’. Argument from authority illustrates a statement that is authenticated by expert opinion. The latter two terms refer to positions that are adopted on the basis of hearsay. We often encounter hearsay in stock markets. Millions of people trade in equity stocks based on “tips” they receive from friends or relatives and many end up burning their fingers.

The inclination of investors, to follow the herd instinct is rooted in the quest for the latest trends in the financial markets. Which mutual fund scheme is fetching the greatest returns or which scheme is a part of some top investor’s portfolio? Did equity outperform bonds in the financial year or not? Based on the answers to such questions, investors switch back and forth rapidly, without realizing that the cost involved in such a process is going to eat into their profits, if at all they make any.

How do we avoid such behavior?

Should investors stop looking at trends and suggestions? It will be wrong to eliminate networking altogether. Research and meticulously acquired expertise are the two pillars, which serve to neutralize the risk of following the crowd.

This adverse impact of herd behavior is most visibly apparent in the realm of financial markets. An investor needs to overcome the fear of isolation and drive innovative investment strategy. Towards this end, he must either gain the expertise to manage his investments with acumen or take the help of a reliable advisor, who can guide him.

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As they hit the final IPL shot, let us take home a few key learnings!

India loves nothing more than its cricket. And cricket is best epitomized in the all exciting and our very own Indian Premier League. However, if we spare a thought, IPL is not just a game. The learnings that we can derive from IPL are applicable in multiple facets of life.

Let us see how you can takeaway 5 things that will help us manage your money better.

1. Balance your portfolio

T20 as a sport demonstrates how a team cannot harness dependency on a single player. A winning team is a combination of the right mix of bowlers, batsmen and all-rounders.

Likewise, a portfolio which is diversified across various asset classes is always preferable over one which focuses on a single asset class. Imagine you invest all your savings in that house you had always dreamt of. While you now own the place you stay in, you don’t know how to fund the medical emergency that has suddenly cropped up in the family. Hence, it is essential that you map your investments to various goals and create a balanced portfolio.

2. Start planning early

IPL teams start wracking their brains right from the day they have to pick their players: which players should be retained, what would be the best combination in the given budget, is the value of a player worth his cost?

Similarly, an early planning for investing is always worthwhile. Not only does it give us better control over our finances but also gives us substantial time to plan for our goals. It is therefore important to understand every step in financial planning before you actually start investing.

3. What’s hyped isn’t always the best

IPL-1 is a great reflection of the famous catchphrase ‘all that glitters is not gold’. With their multi-million dollar wallets, pundits betted on teams like Mumbai Indians and Delhi Daredevils. The season, however, ended with the shoestring-budgeted Rajasthan Royals taking the trophy home. People thought that a bigger budget meant winning the trophy. But if only it was that simple!

Hype can often be misleading. We often tend to fall prey to herd mentality. However, it is of utmost criticality that you decipher facts yourself and look at all the important statistics with the help of an expert.

4. Keep your calm: Don’t quit on a winning strategy

IPL-2015 – a case in point. Mumbai Indians lost the first four matches of the season and were at the bottom of the table. But they knew they had a winning mix. They chose to stick to their guns and treaded with caution and patience. Result – They brought the trophy back home.

So, if you know that you have a winning portfolio or a winning strategy, don’t quit! Don’t be bogged down by short term fluctuations and focus on the long term.

5. Some advice along the way always pays off

We have often seen the cricketing maestros contributing their bit in mentoring and guiding the players off the field.

Financial planning which is a highly knowledge driven domain, is better done when planned along with a financial advisor. While your current knowledge may seem to be sufficient and adequate, you might not be as aware of the latest developments or specific implications of different instruments and investment avenues. It therefore always pays off to consult an advisor before you take that big leap with your hard earned money.

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Look beyond the obvious

A few days back, I met an old school friend Rajeev on my flight from Mumbai to New Delhi. We started reminiscing about our old school days and the time just flew by. Rajeev has done well in his career and is working as a Management Consultant with a reputed consulting firm.

Somehow, the discussion shifted to financial planning and Rajeev told me, that he is quite happy seeing his investment grow at 8%. This got me interested, so I further enquired and discovered that he has invested his savings in long tenor bank fixed deposits.  I was surprised and explained to him that he is only looking at nominal returns and there is more to returns than what meets the eye.

This got me thinking, do we as investors really know the actual returns of our investment? No, it’s not because we don’t read the numbers, but because we don’t understand how to find the net returns of our investment. Most people only care about the raw returns on their investment and unfortunately this is not the return to actually care about.

The two most important factors which impact our investment are taxation and inflation. While, the impact of taxation is still comparatively easy to understand, as on paper it leads to reduction in earning, the impact of inflation is more insidious.

With regards to taxation, every investor should look at the “after tax” return of his investment, but we will discuss this at some other time. Today let’s try to delve into the impact of inflation on our investment return.

Let’s get back to Rajeev and his investment in bank FD earning 8% return. Is he actually earning 8%? No, he is not. This is his “before tax” and “nominal return”.  For the time being, let’s ignore the impact of taxation and discuss further on “nominal return”.

As investors, we have to factor in the bite of inflation and look at the “real return”. In the above case, if the current inflation is 7%, the real return for the investment this year is only 1%. Why is that? Inflation represents loss in purchasing power. Simply put, 10 years back you can buy much more with 100 rupees in your account, than you can buy today. Inflation can affect the risk/return profile of any asset, including cash.

Investments offering you miniscule or negative real returns will actually lead to loss in purchasing power and are actually making you poorer over time. For example, savings account seems to provide a sense of security and guarantees “nominal return” of 4%; it actually is making you poorer by 3% (considering inflation is 7%). Same is the case with bank fixed deposits; it mostly gives you either negative real return or at maximum gives miniscule real return.

Historically as per the chart above,  investment  in  equities  has  offered  higher  real  returns  compared  to  fixed  deposits.  Hence, it is seen as a good hedge against inflation. Investments done in fixed deposit have barely been able to beat the inflation over the years, while the investments in equity have given handsome returns over long period of times.

If you find it difficult to choose the right companies for investing, you could opt to invest through mutual fund schemes, preferably through the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) route.

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Dear Mums, it is time you hold the reign!

“My mother had a great deal of trouble with me, but I think she enjoyed it.” – Mark Twain

Such is motherhood – an epitome of love, dedication and care. Historically, India has been a patriarchal society – where men earn and take care of all finances and women handle an equally challenging task of running the home and taking care of the kids. Driven by her innate maternal instinct, a mother often plays a more direct role in shaping the foundation of her children’s value system and setting the direction for their beliefs and aspirations.

In the last few years, there has been a noticeable and encouraging shift in this direction – with fathers playing an increasingly important role in the upbringing of the children and women sharing the onus to earn the livelihood for the family. Times are changing, and sooner than we think!

But as mothers broaden their ambit of responsibilities, there is a remarkable scope for them to contribute to the financial planning of the family, more so to that of her children. Financial planning still remains the husband’s task and we rarely come across women approaching us to create an “education fund” for example – be it because of limited knowledge or limited interest.

This Mother’s Day, as we celebrate motherhood, we salute all the astounding mothers out there. At the same time, we invite all mothers to take upon themselves, the responsibility to secure a bright future for their children, through diligent financial planning. While the husbands must be doing an excellent job at planning the finances of the family, this mother’s day “Gift an SIP” to your child – an expression of love, manifested uniquely and responsibly!